JIANCHA
P&L Control Tower
Cash-Flow Projection — 10-Branch Portfolio
5-year projection · bank-loan financed · THB
Investment: ฿36,966,000
Loan: ฿21,572,800
NPV: ฿6,316,696
IRR: 16.3%
Data refresh: 2026-06-30
Total Investment
฿36,966,000
Bank Loan
฿21,572,800 (80.0%)
NPV @ 10.0%
฿6,316,696
IRR
16.3%
Payback (levered)
1.8 yr
Equity payback
3.3 yr
Year 5 Revenue
฿92,975,816
Total Net Income
฿30,652,752
CAPEX — Investment by Branch
| Branch | Model | m² | Construction | Equipment | Total | Depr./yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pottogo Bang Pa-in | M1 | 40 | ฿800,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,300,000 | ฿460,000 |
| Robinson Saraburi | M3 | 50 | ฿1,250,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ฿550,000 |
| BNN Park Ratchaphruek | M2 | 48 | ฿1,056,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,556,000 | ฿511,200 |
| Bangchak Bangbuathong | M3 | 50 | ฿1,250,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ฿550,000 |
| Robinson Ratchaphruek | M3 | 50 | ฿1,250,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ฿550,000 |
| Robinson Ratchaburi | M3 | 50 | ฿1,250,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ฿550,000 |
| Robinson Suphanburi | M4 | 60 | ฿1,620,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿4,120,000 | ฿624,000 |
| Robinson Chachoengsao | M3 | 50 | ฿1,250,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ฿550,000 |
| Robinson Chonburi | M3 | 50 | ฿1,250,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ฿550,000 |
| PTT West Village | M2 | 45 | ฿990,000 | ฿1,500,000 | ฿3,490,000 | ฿498,000 |
| Total (10) | ฿11,966,000 | ฿15,000,000 | ฿36,966,000 | ฿5,393,200 | ||
P&L Performance (% of Revenue)
| Account | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ฿68,340,000 · 100.0% | ฿73,807,200 · 100.0% | ฿79,711,776 · 100.0% | ฿86,088,718 · 100.0% | ฿92,975,816 · 100.0% | ฿400,923,510 · 100.0% |
| COGS | ฿25,285,800 · 37.0% | ฿27,308,664 · 37.0% | ฿29,493,357 · 37.0% | ฿31,852,826 · 37.0% | ฿34,401,052 · 37.0% | ฿148,341,699 · 37.0% |
| Gross Profit | ฿43,054,200 · 63.0% | ฿46,498,536 · 63.0% | ฿50,218,419 · 63.0% | ฿54,235,892 · 63.0% | ฿58,574,764 · 63.0% | ฿252,581,811 · 63.0% |
| SG&A | ฿26,065,161 · 38.1% | ฿28,584,738 · 38.7% | ฿31,371,036 · 39.4% | ฿34,455,165 · 40.0% | ฿37,872,191 · 40.7% | ฿158,348,290 · 39.5% |
| EBITDA | ฿16,989,039 · 24.9% | ฿17,913,798 · 24.3% | ฿18,847,383 · 23.6% | ฿19,780,728 · 23.0% | ฿20,702,573 · 22.3% | ฿94,233,521 · 23.5% |
| Management fee | ฿4,247,260 · 6.2% | ฿4,478,450 · 6.1% | ฿4,711,846 · 5.9% | ฿4,945,182 · 5.7% | ฿5,175,643 · 5.6% | ฿23,558,380 · 5.9% |
| Depreciation | ฿5,393,200 · 7.9% | ฿5,393,200 · 7.3% | ฿5,393,200 · 6.8% | ฿5,393,200 · 6.3% | ฿5,393,200 · 5.8% | ฿26,966,000 · 6.7% |
| EBIT | ฿7,348,579 · 10.8% | ฿8,042,149 · 10.9% | ฿8,742,338 · 11.0% | ฿9,442,346 · 11.0% | ฿10,133,729 · 10.9% | ฿43,709,140 · 10.9% |
| Interest | ฿1,078,640 · 1.6% | ฿1,078,640 · 1.5% | ฿1,078,640 · 1.4% | ฿1,078,640 · 1.3% | ฿1,078,640 · 1.2% | ฿5,393,200 · 1.3% |
| Tax | ฿1,253,988 · 1.8% | ฿1,392,702 · 1.9% | ฿1,532,740 · 1.9% | ฿1,672,741 · 1.9% | ฿1,811,018 · 1.9% | ฿7,663,188 · 1.9% |
| Net Income | ฿5,015,951 · 7.3% | ฿5,570,807 · 7.5% | ฿6,130,958 · 7.7% | ฿6,690,965 · 7.8% | ฿7,244,072 · 7.8% | ฿30,652,752 · 7.6% |
Cash Flow & Returns
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating FCF | (฿36,966,000) | ฿10,409,151 | ฿10,964,007 | ฿11,524,158 | ฿12,084,165 | ฿12,637,272 |
| Loan draw | +฿21,572,800 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loan repayment | — | — | −฿5,000,000 | −฿5,000,000 | −฿5,000,000 | −฿6,572,800 |
| Net cash flow | (฿15,393,200) | ฿10,409,151 | ฿5,964,007 | ฿6,524,158 | ฿7,084,165 | ฿6,064,472 |
| Cumulative cash flow | (฿15,393,200) | (฿4,984,049) | ฿979,958 | ฿7,504,116 | ฿14,588,281 | ฿20,652,752 |
Branch Comparison (best: Bangchak Bangbuathong · worst: Pottogo Bang Pa-in)
| Branch | Model | Ownership | Investment | 5-yr Net Income | ROI | Avg EBITDA % | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangchak Bangbuathong | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿4,750,489 | 126.7% | 29.4% | 2.7 yr |
| Robinson Suphanburi | M4 | Company | ฿4,120,000 | ฿4,471,387 | 108.5% | 24.5% | 2.8 yr |
| Robinson Ratchaphruek | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿3,536,860 | 94.3% | 24.6% | 3.1 yr |
| BNN Park Ratchaphruek | M2 | Company | ฿3,556,000 | ฿2,859,238 | 80.4% | 24.7% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Saraburi | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Ratchaburi | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Chachoengsao | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Chonburi | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| PTT West Village | M2 | Company | ฿3,490,000 | ฿2,369,183 | 67.9% | 22.1% | 3.7 yr |
| Pottogo Bang Pa-in | M1 | Company | ฿3,300,000 | ฿1,188,136 | 36.0% | 21.0% | 4.8 yr |
Branch Buyback — Worth-it Evaluation (target: repay within 4 yr · WACC 10.0%)
Worth buying back
10 / 10 considered
Total buyback price
฿18,089,400
Intrinsic value / headroom
฿35,435,945 / ฿17,346,545
| Branch | Owner | Mo. Sales | Offer | Floor | Hard-cap | Payback | NPV | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pottogo Bang Pa-in | Company | ฿382,500 | ฿1,544,800 | ฿1,467,560 | ฿1,699,280 | 2.4 yr | ฿602,127 | ฿602,127 | WORTH |
| Robinson Saraburi | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | ฿1,752,323 | ฿2,029,005 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH |
| BNN Park Ratchaphruek | Company | ฿510,000 | ฿1,716,250 | ฿1,630,438 | ฿1,887,875 | 1.7 yr | ฿1,595,319 | ฿1,595,319 | WORTH |
| Bangchak Bangbuathong | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | ฿1,752,323 | ฿2,029,005 | 1.4 yr | ฿2,714,141 | ฿2,714,141 | WORTH |
| Robinson Ratchaphruek | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | ฿1,752,323 | ฿2,029,005 | 1.6 yr | ฿2,013,599 | ฿2,013,599 | WORTH |
| Robinson Ratchaburi | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | ฿1,752,323 | ฿2,029,005 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH |
| Robinson Suphanburi | Company | ฿722,500 | ฿2,084,400 | ฿1,980,180 | ฿2,292,840 | 1.5 yr | ฿2,594,354 | ฿2,594,354 | WORTH |
| Robinson Chachoengsao | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | ฿1,752,323 | ฿2,029,005 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH |
| Robinson Chonburi | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | ฿1,752,323 | ฿2,029,005 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH |
| PTT West Village | Company | ฿510,000 | ฿1,676,650 | ฿1,592,818 | ฿1,844,315 | 1.9 yr | ฿1,313,799 | ฿1,313,799 | WORTH |
Advice — Pottogo Bang Pa-in: Buy back. Offer ฿1,544,800 repays within 2.4 yr (≤ 4 yr target), NPV +฿602,127 at 10% WACC. Intrinsic value ฿2,146,927 → margin of safety ฿602,127. Start at Floor ฿1,467,560, walk away above ฿1,699,280.
Offer = Asset NBV (straight-line) + Inventory + Premium (sales-tier × quality × strategic-tier) − Liabilities. Verdict compares the branch's projected free cash flow against the offer over the target horizon.
By business model
| Model | Branches | Investment | Net Income | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4 | 1 | ฿4,120,000 | ฿4,471,387 | 108.5% |
| M3 | 6 | ฿22,500,000 | ฿19,764,808 | 87.8% |
| M2 | 2 | ฿7,046,000 | ฿5,228,421 | 74.2% |
| M1 | 1 | ฿3,300,000 | ฿1,188,136 | 36.0% |
Company-owned vs Franchise
| Ownership | Branches | Investment | Net Income | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | 10 | ฿36,966,000 | ฿30,652,752 | 82.9% |
Assumptions: revenue growth 8.0%/yr · rental growth 15.0%/yr · management fee 25.0% of EBITDA · tax 20.0% · WACC 10.0% · depreciation over 5 yrs · loan 80.0% of construction+equipment @ 5.0% (flat, repay from Year 2 at ฿5,000,000/yr). Depreciation = construction + equipment only. Generated 2026-06-30 · Super Admin · Illustrative.