Cash-Flow Projection — Portfolio
— · 10 branches · 5-year · bank-loan financed
Assumptions
Portfolio-wide
Loan drawn Year 0. Repayment begins in the chosen year; the final project year clears the balance. Flat interest on the original principal while outstanding.
| Branch | Model | Ownership | Size m² | Rent / mo | Open | Rent-free | Y1 Revenue | Investment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ฿4,590,000 | ฿3,300,000 | ||||||||
| ฿7,140,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ||||||||
| ฿6,120,000 | ฿3,556,000 | ||||||||
| ฿7,140,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ||||||||
| ฿7,140,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ||||||||
| ฿7,140,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ||||||||
| ฿8,670,000 | ฿4,120,000 | ||||||||
| ฿7,140,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ||||||||
| ฿7,140,000 | ฿3,750,000 | ||||||||
| ฿6,120,000 | ฿3,490,000 | ||||||||
| Total (10 branches) | ฿36,966,000 | ||||||||
| Account | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ฿68,340,000 100.0% | ฿73,807,200 100.0% | ฿79,711,776 100.0% | ฿86,088,718 100.0% | ฿92,975,816 100.0% | ฿400,923,510 100.0% |
| COGS | ฿25,285,800 37.0% | ฿27,308,664 37.0% | ฿29,493,357 37.0% | ฿31,852,826 37.0% | ฿34,401,052 37.0% | ฿148,341,699 37.0% |
| Gross Profit | ฿43,054,200 63.0% | ฿46,498,536 63.0% | ฿50,218,419 63.0% | ฿54,235,892 63.0% | ฿58,574,764 63.0% | ฿252,581,811 63.0% |
| SG&A (excl. depr.) | ฿26,065,161 38.1% | ฿28,584,738 38.7% | ฿31,371,036 39.4% | ฿34,455,165 40.0% | ฿37,872,191 40.7% | ฿158,348,290 39.5% |
| EBITDA | ฿16,989,039 24.9% | ฿17,913,798 24.3% | ฿18,847,383 23.6% | ฿19,780,728 23.0% | ฿20,702,573 22.3% | ฿94,233,521 23.5% |
| Management fee | ฿4,247,260 6.2% | ฿4,478,450 6.1% | ฿4,711,846 5.9% | ฿4,945,182 5.7% | ฿5,175,643 5.6% | ฿23,558,380 5.9% |
| Depreciation | ฿5,393,200 7.9% | ฿5,393,200 7.3% | ฿5,393,200 6.8% | ฿5,393,200 6.3% | ฿5,393,200 5.8% | ฿26,966,000 6.7% |
| EBIT | ฿7,348,579 10.8% | ฿8,042,149 10.9% | ฿8,742,338 11.0% | ฿9,442,346 11.0% | ฿10,133,729 10.9% | ฿43,709,140 10.9% |
| Interest | ฿1,078,640 1.6% | ฿1,078,640 1.5% | ฿1,078,640 1.4% | ฿1,078,640 1.3% | ฿1,078,640 1.2% | ฿5,393,200 1.3% |
| Tax | ฿1,253,988 1.8% | ฿1,392,702 1.9% | ฿1,532,740 1.9% | ฿1,672,741 1.9% | ฿1,811,018 1.9% | ฿7,663,188 1.9% |
| Net Income | ฿5,015,951 7.3% | ฿5,570,807 7.5% | ฿6,130,958 7.7% | ฿6,690,965 7.8% | ฿7,244,072 7.8% | ฿30,652,752 7.6% |
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating FCF (NI + Depr.) | (฿36,966,000) | ฿10,409,151 | ฿10,964,007 | ฿11,524,158 | ฿12,084,165 | ฿12,637,272 |
| Loan draw | ฿21,572,800 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loan repayment | — | — | (฿5,000,000) | (฿5,000,000) | (฿5,000,000) | (฿6,572,800) |
| Net cash flow | (฿15,393,200) | ฿10,409,151 | ฿5,964,007 | ฿6,524,158 | ฿7,084,165 | ฿6,064,472 |
| Cumulative cash flow | (฿15,393,200) | (฿4,984,049) | ฿979,958 | ฿7,504,116 | ฿14,588,281 | ฿20,652,752 |
Cumulative Cash Flow
Levered payback ≈ 1.8 yrs (crosses zero)
Loan schedule
฿21,572,800 @ 5.0%
| Year | Interest | Repayment | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 (draw) | — | +฿21,572,800 | ฿21,572,800 |
| Year 1 | ฿1,078,640 | — | ฿21,572,800 |
| Year 2 | ฿1,078,640 | −฿5,000,000 | ฿16,572,800 |
| Year 3 | ฿1,078,640 | −฿5,000,000 | ฿11,572,800 |
| Year 4 | ฿1,078,640 | −฿5,000,000 | ฿6,572,800 |
| Year 5 | ฿1,078,640 | −฿6,572,800 | ฿0 |
| Branch | Model | Ownership | Investment | 5-yr Net Income | ROI | Avg EBITDA % | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangchak Bangbuathong | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿4,750,489 | 126.7% | 29.4% | 2.7 yr |
| Robinson Suphanburi | M4 | Company | ฿4,120,000 | ฿4,471,387 | 108.5% | 24.5% | 2.8 yr |
| Robinson Ratchaphruek | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿3,536,860 | 94.3% | 24.6% | 3.1 yr |
| BNN Park Ratchaphruek | M2 | Company | ฿3,556,000 | ฿2,859,238 | 80.4% | 24.7% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Saraburi | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Ratchaburi | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Chachoengsao | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| Robinson Chonburi | M3 | Company | ฿3,750,000 | ฿2,869,365 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 3.4 yr |
| PTT West Village | M2 | Company | ฿3,490,000 | ฿2,369,183 | 67.9% | 22.1% | 3.7 yr |
| Pottogo Bang Pa-in | M1 | Company | ฿3,300,000 | ฿1,188,136 | 36.0% | 21.0% | 4.8 yr |
| Model | Branches | Investment | 5-yr Net Income | ROI | Avg EBITDA % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4 | 1 | ฿4,120,000 | ฿4,471,387 | 108.5% | 24.5% |
| M3 | 6 | ฿22,500,000 | ฿19,764,808 | 87.8% | 23.6% |
| M2 | 2 | ฿7,046,000 | ฿5,228,421 | 74.2% | 23.4% |
| M1 | 1 | ฿3,300,000 | ฿1,188,136 | 36.0% | 21.0% |
| Ownership | Branches | Investment | 5-yr Net Income | ROI | Avg EBITDA % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | 10 | ฿36,966,000 | ฿30,652,752 | 82.9% | 23.5% |
| Incl. | Branch | Owner | Mo. Sales | Elig✗ | Quality | Tier | Offer | Payback | NPV | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pottogo Bang Pa-in | Company | ฿382,500 | ฿1,544,800 | 2.4 yr | ฿602,127 | ฿602,127 | WORTH | ||||
| Robinson Saraburi | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH | ||||
| BNN Park Ratchaphruek | Company | ฿510,000 | ฿1,716,250 | 1.7 yr | ฿1,595,319 | ฿1,595,319 | WORTH | ||||
| Bangchak Bangbuathong | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | 1.4 yr | ฿2,714,141 | ฿2,714,141 | WORTH | ||||
| Robinson Ratchaphruek | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | 1.6 yr | ฿2,013,599 | ฿2,013,599 | WORTH | ||||
| Robinson Ratchaburi | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH | ||||
| Robinson Suphanburi | Company | ฿722,500 | ฿2,084,400 | 1.5 yr | ฿2,594,354 | ฿2,594,354 | WORTH | ||||
| Robinson Chachoengsao | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH | ||||
| Robinson Chonburi | Company | ฿595,000 | ฿1,844,550 | 1.8 yr | ฿1,628,302 | ฿1,628,302 | WORTH | ||||
| PTT West Village | Company | ฿510,000 | ฿1,676,650 | 1.9 yr | ฿1,313,799 | ฿1,313,799 | WORTH |
A · Is it worth it?
Target: repay within 4 yr
branches worth buying back.
Worth: Pottogo Bang Pa-in, Robinson Saraburi, BNN Park Ratchaphruek, Bangchak Bangbuathong, Robinson Ratchaphruek, Robinson Ratchaburi, Robinson Suphanburi, Robinson Chachoengsao, Robinson Chonburi, PTT West Village
B · How much?
Capital for the worth-it set
recommended total buyback price (Target). Intrinsic value ฿35,435,945 → headroom ฿17,346,545.
Per branch: negotiate up from Floor (95%), walk away above Hard-cap (110%).
C · Logic & advice
How the number is built
Offer = Asset NBV (straight-line depreciated) + Inventory + Premium (sales-tier × quality × strategic-tier) − Liabilities. Worth-it tests whether the branch's projected free cash flow repays the offer within 4 yr with positive NPV at 10.0% WACC.
Pottogo Bang Pa-in: Buy back. Offer ฿1,544,800 repays within 2.4 yr (≤ 4 yr target), NPV +฿602,127 at 10% WACC. Intrinsic value ฿2,146,927 → margin of safety ฿602,127. Start at Floor ฿1,467,560, walk away above ฿1,699,280.
Final report — sections
Tick what appears in the printed PDF